Glenn Hegar defends revenue, oil estimates

Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar announced earlier this month the Legislature will have $113 billion in revenue available for general purpose spending for the 2016-17 biennium

Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar announced earlier this month the Legislature will have $113 billion in revenue available for general purpose spending for the 2016-17 biennium

Texas’ newly-minted Comptroller Glenn Hegar on Monday defended a revenue estimate he unveiled earlier this month that assumes the price of oil will rebound this year and continue to rise in 2016 and 2017.

In a keynote speech to the Texas Broadcasters Association, Hegar cited comments from the secretary-general of OPEC on Monday that oil prices may “have reached a bottom” after lingering in the $45 to $50 per barrel range in recent weeks.

Hegar’s higher-than-expected revenue estimate, released Jan. 12, predicts the average taxable price of oil for the current fiscal year, which ends Aug. 31, will be about $64 per barrel and that the average will rise to $65 in 2016 and $69 by the end of 2017. The last revenue estimate, released in 2013, assumed average taxable oil prices of about $80 per barrel for each year of the state’s two-year budget cycle.

The revenue estimate is an educated guess about how much money the state Legislature will have to spend during the forthcoming biennium and depends in part on oil prices as the state taxes energy production and its other tax collections and economy in general are closely tied to the industry.

However, on Monday Hegar emphasized — as he did when unveiling his revenue estimate earlier this month — the increased diversity of the state’s economy.

“I think Texas’ future is going to continue to be extremely bright,” said Hegar, who was sworn into office Jan. 2.

Still, he said that predicting oil prices into the future is “almost impossible to get to the exact penny, to get to the exact dollar” and promised to update his revenue estimate, if needed.

Hegar’s spokeswoman said last week he has no plans to revise his projection yet. State law gives the comptroller authority to update the revenue estimate whenever he or she deems it necessary.

Revenue estimates of the recent past have never predicted oil prices exactly.

Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar announced earlier this month the Legislature will have $113 billion in revenue available for general purpose spending for the 2016-17 biennium

Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar announced earlier this month the Legislature will have $113 billion in revenue available for general purpose spending for the 2016-17 biennium

 

 

Reader Comments 0

4 comments
candid
candid

How can he make an estimate when he knows the oil price gets manipulated depending on political necessities, same goes for currencies.


But then again revenue estimates are subject to manipulation for the sake of political polices just the same. 

nitpickintroll
nitpickintroll

"Revenue estimates of the recent past have never predicted oil prices exactly."


I'd say that about sums it up.  Watch your wallet girls....The boys are back in town.


btw. Keep an eye on the small animals and children.

Whodunnit
Whodunnit

Nice spin moves, Glenn, but you know better.  Give it up.  We're entering a Brave New World for how govts are going to raise operating revenue.

cheat-to-win
cheat-to-win

The tea party tax-and-spenders love Hegar the Horrible, the idiot who said at his swearing in week before last that low oil prices won't hurt Texas all that much and that the Texas economy will largely benefit from lower fuel costs. 

The much more thoughtful (as in sentient) Republican Sen. Bettencourt, aligned with our suicidal bankrupt lieutenant governor, says low oil prices will hurt Texas so much that large tax cuts promised by crazy Dan Patrick are off the table. Too bad Hegar the Horrible doesn't understand how to pick up the phone and call Bettencourt before making his off-the-wall comments. 

Hegar's worthless finger-in-the-air estimate of state revenues make incompetent and corrupt Big Sue Combs look wise. Throwing darts at a dartboard would provide a more accurate prediction of state revenue than either goofball Republican could even imagine.